{ "_computation_guide": { "description": "195-country food vulnerability rankings across 12 disruption scenarios from The Food Shock Atlas (Nimble Books, 2026). Each country has a Composite Vulnerability Index and per-scenario vulnerability scores (0-100 scale, higher = more vulnerable).", "suggested_analyses": [ "Compare any two countries: which is more vulnerable to scenario X?", "Rank all countries by vulnerability to a specific shock (e.g., sort by 'fertilizer_cutoff')", "Find countries vulnerable to multiple simultaneous shocks (high scores across 3+ scenarios)", "Calculate regional averages (group by UN region, compute mean composite score)", "Identify the 10 most food-fragile nations overall", "Cross-reference with population data to estimate people at risk per scenario", "Find 'surprise vulnerabilities' \u2014 wealthy countries with hidden food fragility", "Model compound shocks: what happens if scenarios 1 AND 4 hit simultaneously?", "Compare island nations vs. landlocked nations on canal_closure vulnerability", "Identify which single shock would affect the most people globally" ], "column_definitions": { "country": "Country name (English)", "iso3": "ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 country code", "composite_vulnerability": "Overall food vulnerability index (0-100, higher = more vulnerable). Weighted average across all dimensions.", "breadbasket_drought": "Vulnerability to simultaneous drought in 3+ major grain exporters (0-100)", "black_sea_blockade": "Vulnerability to Black Sea grain corridor disruption (0-100)", "fertilizer_cutoff": "Vulnerability to Russia/Belarus potash + China phosphate export restrictions (0-100)", "pollinator_decline": "Vulnerability to global pollinator population collapse (0-100)", "canal_closure": "Vulnerability to simultaneous Suez + Panama canal disruption (0-100)", "aquifer_depletion": "Vulnerability to Ogallala/North China/Punjab/Saudi aquifer exhaustion (0-100)", "trade_war": "Vulnerability to major agricultural trade war / export bans (0-100)", "soil_degradation": "Vulnerability to accelerated topsoil loss and salinization (0-100)", "fisheries_collapse": "Vulnerability to commercial fish stock collapse (0-100)", "seed_monopoly": "Vulnerability to seed supply monopoly disruption (0-100)", "pest_migration": "Vulnerability to climate-driven agricultural pest range expansion (0-100)", "energy_shock": "Vulnerability to energy price spike affecting food production/transport (0-100)" }, "download_formats": { "json": "https://bigfivekiller.online/data/food_shock_atlas_vulnerability.json", "csv": "https://bigfivekiller.online/data/food_shock_atlas_vulnerability.csv" }, "citation": "The Food Shock Atlas: How 12 Disruption Scenarios Reshape Who Eats and Who Starves. Nimble Books LLC / Variant Earths imprint, 2026.", "license": "CC-BY-SA 4.0. Free to use with attribution.", "book_url": "https://bigfivekiller.online/Bookstore", "methodology_url": "https://bigfivekiller.online/data/food_shock_atlas_summary.json" }, "metadata": { "title": "The Food Shock Atlas: 195-Country Vulnerability Rankings", "publisher": "Nimble Books LLC / Variant Earths", "version": "1.0", "last_updated": "2026-03-19", "total_countries": 191, "total_scenarios": 12, "data_sources": [ "FAO FAOSTAT", "World Bank WDI", "USDA FAS", "IPCC AR6", "UN COMTRADE" ] }, "countries": [ { "country": "Somalia", "iso3": "SOM", "composite_vulnerability": 92.3, "breadbasket_drought": 91.1, "black_sea_blockade": 90.9, "fertilizer_cutoff": 91.4, "pollinator_decline": 97.9, "canal_closure": 91.3, "aquifer_depletion": 80.3, "trade_war": 95.0, "soil_degradation": 90.2, "fisheries_collapse": 90.6, "seed_monopoly": 93.2, "pest_migration": 94.2, "energy_shock": 100 }, { "country": "Yemen", "iso3": "YEM", "composite_vulnerability": 91.1, "breadbasket_drought": 96.4, "black_sea_blockade": 92.0, "fertilizer_cutoff": 85.2, "pollinator_decline": 83.0, "canal_closure": 93.1, "aquifer_depletion": 100, "trade_war": 91.4, "soil_degradation": 90.2, "fisheries_collapse": 95.4, "seed_monopoly": 79.5, "pest_migration": 88.6, "energy_shock": 95.0 }, { "country": "South Sudan", "iso3": "SSD", "composite_vulnerability": 90.5, "breadbasket_drought": 97.5, "black_sea_blockade": 88.6, "fertilizer_cutoff": 93.5, "pollinator_decline": 92.5, "canal_closure": 96.8, "aquifer_depletion": 81.6, "trade_war": 95.0, "soil_degradation": 78.4, "fisheries_collapse": 69.5, "seed_monopoly": 85.6, "pest_migration": 83.2, "energy_shock": 97.5 }, { "country": "Afghanistan", "iso3": "AFG", "composite_vulnerability": 89.2, "breadbasket_drought": 94.5, "black_sea_blockade": 79.4, "fertilizer_cutoff": 96.0, "pollinator_decline": 81.2, "canal_closure": 88.5, "aquifer_depletion": 86.8, "trade_war": 90.1, "soil_degradation": 95.7, "fisheries_collapse": 94.3, "seed_monopoly": 92.0, "pest_migration": 94.4, "energy_shock": 93.0 }, { "country": "Haiti", "iso3": "HTI", "composite_vulnerability": 87.8, "breadbasket_drought": 82.8, "black_sea_blockade": 82.1, "fertilizer_cutoff": 84.0, "pollinator_decline": 91.8, "canal_closure": 85.8, "aquifer_depletion": 100, "trade_war": 81.2, "soil_degradation": 79.0, "fisheries_collapse": 93.9, "seed_monopoly": 99.2, "pest_migration": 91.8, "energy_shock": 94.5 }, { "country": "Central African Republic", "iso3": "CAF", "composite_vulnerability": 87.1, "breadbasket_drought": 98.5, "black_sea_blockade": 86.3, "fertilizer_cutoff": 75.7, "pollinator_decline": 82.8, "canal_closure": 94.7, "aquifer_depletion": 75.6, "trade_war": 87.4, "soil_degradation": 89.1, "fisheries_collapse": 84.6, "seed_monopoly": 92.9, "pest_migration": 91.7, "energy_shock": 100 }, { "country": "Chad", "iso3": "TCD", "composite_vulnerability": 86.3, "breadbasket_drought": 91.3, "black_sea_blockade": 81.4, "fertilizer_cutoff": 81.8, "pollinator_decline": 79.6, "canal_closure": 93.9, "aquifer_depletion": 81.8, "trade_war": 85.7, "soil_degradation": 92.3, "fisheries_collapse": 80.5, "seed_monopoly": 84.0, "pest_migration": 71.6, "energy_shock": 77.6 }, { "country": "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "iso3": "COD", "composite_vulnerability": 85.7, "breadbasket_drought": 81.2, "black_sea_blockade": 89.0, "fertilizer_cutoff": 95.2, "pollinator_decline": 85.6, "canal_closure": 87.8, "aquifer_depletion": 87.0, "trade_war": 94.4, "soil_degradation": 92.8, "fisheries_collapse": 87.9, "seed_monopoly": 77.6, "pest_migration": 92.9, "energy_shock": 88.7 }, { "country": "Syria", "iso3": "SYR", "composite_vulnerability": 85.2, "breadbasket_drought": 95.0, "black_sea_blockade": 85.0, "fertilizer_cutoff": 100, "pollinator_decline": 82.3, "canal_closure": 97.9, "aquifer_depletion": 86.1, "trade_war": 81.1, "soil_degradation": 76.2, "fisheries_collapse": 84.0, "seed_monopoly": 96.6, "pest_migration": 91.7, "energy_shock": 90.7 }, { "country": "Eritrea", "iso3": "ERI", "composite_vulnerability": 84.6, "breadbasket_drought": 65.6, "black_sea_blockade": 90.3, "fertilizer_cutoff": 89.0, "pollinator_decline": 80.2, "canal_closure": 79.6, "aquifer_depletion": 84.6, "trade_war": 98.4, "soil_degradation": 76.2, "fisheries_collapse": 81.2, "seed_monopoly": 95.5, "pest_migration": 81.0, "energy_shock": 81.7 }, { "country": "Sudan", "iso3": "SDN", "composite_vulnerability": 84.1, "breadbasket_drought": 84.9, "black_sea_blockade": 74.2, "fertilizer_cutoff": 85.9, "pollinator_decline": 74.4, "canal_closure": 91.2, "aquifer_depletion": 84.1, "trade_war": 100, "soil_degradation": 86.3, "fisheries_collapse": 95.0, "seed_monopoly": 73.7, "pest_migration": 83.1, "energy_shock": 86.7 }, { "country": "Madagascar", "iso3": "MDG", "composite_vulnerability": 83.4, "breadbasket_drought": 97.4, "black_sea_blockade": 70.0, "fertilizer_cutoff": 91.3, "pollinator_decline": 88.1, "canal_closure": 95.7, "aquifer_depletion": 89.1, "trade_war": 83.8, "soil_degradation": 79.2, "fisheries_collapse": 73.4, "seed_monopoly": 85.0, "pest_migration": 81.9, "energy_shock": 99.6 }, { "country": "Niger", "iso3": "NER", "composite_vulnerability": 82.8, "breadbasket_drought": 77.9, "black_sea_blockade": 85.4, "fertilizer_cutoff": 70.2, "pollinator_decline": 79.6, "canal_closure": 84.9, "aquifer_depletion": 89.4, "trade_war": 94.4, "soil_degradation": 82.4, "fisheries_collapse": 73.9, "seed_monopoly": 86.5, "pest_migration": 86.9, "energy_shock": 86.7 }, { "country": "Burkina Faso", "iso3": "BFA", "composite_vulnerability": 82.1, "breadbasket_drought": 76.5, "black_sea_blockade": 91.2, "fertilizer_cutoff": 82.8, "pollinator_decline": 87.7, "canal_closure": 92.3, "aquifer_depletion": 87.0, "trade_war": 84.4, "soil_degradation": 99.3, "fisheries_collapse": 84.0, "seed_monopoly": 79.7, "pest_migration": 83.0, "energy_shock": 94.0 }, { "country": "Mali", "iso3": "MLI", "composite_vulnerability": 81.5, "breadbasket_drought": 82.4, "black_sea_blockade": 85.7, "fertilizer_cutoff": 91.1, "pollinator_decline": 77.4, "canal_closure": 67.7, "aquifer_depletion": 83.9, "trade_war": 83.3, "soil_degradation": 76.6, "fisheries_collapse": 88.5, "seed_monopoly": 86.4, "pest_migration": 73.5, "energy_shock": 85.6 }, { "country": "Mozambique", "iso3": "MOZ", "composite_vulnerability": 80.9, "breadbasket_drought": 79.3, "black_sea_blockade": 69.0, "fertilizer_cutoff": 84.5, "pollinator_decline": 80.5, "canal_closure": 74.9, "aquifer_depletion": 85.1, "trade_war": 84.8, "soil_degradation": 76.3, "fisheries_collapse": 84.1, "seed_monopoly": 89.0, "pest_migration": 75.2, "energy_shock": 83.9 }, { "country": "Ethiopia", "iso3": "ETH", "composite_vulnerability": 80.2, "breadbasket_drought": 80.2, "black_sea_blockade": 98.3, "fertilizer_cutoff": 65.3, "pollinator_decline": 85.8, "canal_closure": 77.8, "aquifer_depletion": 79.4, "trade_war": 95.4, "soil_degradation": 80.1, "fisheries_collapse": 98.1, "seed_monopoly": 76.7, "pest_migration": 83.0, "energy_shock": 76.3 }, { "country": "Myanmar", "iso3": "MMR", "composite_vulnerability": 79.6, "breadbasket_drought": 74.1, "black_sea_blockade": 80.1, "fertilizer_cutoff": 77.3, "pollinator_decline": 81.2, "canal_closure": 62.8, "aquifer_depletion": 95.6, "trade_war": 78.3, "soil_degradation": 93.5, "fisheries_collapse": 71.5, "seed_monopoly": 81.9, "pest_migration": 100, "energy_shock": 72.6 }, { "country": "Burundi", "iso3": "BDI", "composite_vulnerability": 79.1, "breadbasket_drought": 67.1, "black_sea_blockade": 74.7, "fertilizer_cutoff": 82.9, "pollinator_decline": 84.6, "canal_closure": 89.4, "aquifer_depletion": 77.0, "trade_war": 66.3, "soil_degradation": 75.6, "fisheries_collapse": 89.0, "seed_monopoly": 82.8, "pest_migration": 63.4, "energy_shock": 78.8 }, { "country": "Sierra Leone", "iso3": "SLE", "composite_vulnerability": 78.4, "breadbasket_drought": 89.6, "black_sea_blockade": 95.4, "fertilizer_cutoff": 82.9, "pollinator_decline": 80.9, "canal_closure": 68.5, "aquifer_depletion": 71.7, "trade_war": 78.8, "soil_degradation": 82.4, "fisheries_collapse": 83.0, "seed_monopoly": 74.6, "pest_migration": 69.2, "energy_shock": 72.2 }, { "country": "North Korea", "iso3": "PRK", "composite_vulnerability": 76.3, "breadbasket_drought": 79.3, "black_sea_blockade": 85.4, "fertilizer_cutoff": 73.9, "pollinator_decline": 76.3, "canal_closure": 81.0, "aquifer_depletion": 81.8, "trade_war": 67.6, "soil_degradation": 77.8, "fisheries_collapse": 68.7, "seed_monopoly": 70.3, "pest_migration": 71.1, "energy_shock": 86.0 }, { "country": "Tuvalu", "iso3": "TUV", "composite_vulnerability": 74.2, "breadbasket_drought": 70.0, "black_sea_blockade": 71.7, "fertilizer_cutoff": 66.5, "pollinator_decline": 66.1, "canal_closure": 76.7, "aquifer_depletion": 70.4, "trade_war": 73.3, "soil_degradation": 72.4, "fisheries_collapse": 77.9, "seed_monopoly": 73.0, "pest_migration": 81.1, "energy_shock": 75.0 }, { "country": "Djibouti", "iso3": "DJI", "composite_vulnerability": 73.8, "breadbasket_drought": 83.3, "black_sea_blockade": 74.3, "fertilizer_cutoff": 66.0, "pollinator_decline": 81.7, "canal_closure": 68.3, "aquifer_depletion": 64.2, "trade_war": 64.6, "soil_degradation": 74.8, "fisheries_collapse": 83.9, "seed_monopoly": 74.2, "pest_migration": 83.6, "energy_shock": 74.5 }, { "country": "Malawi", "iso3": "MWI", "composite_vulnerability": 73.4, "breadbasket_drought": 78.0, "black_sea_blockade": 65.2, "fertilizer_cutoff": 71.4, "pollinator_decline": 64.1, "canal_closure": 71.2, "aquifer_depletion": 88.4, "trade_war": 79.3, "soil_degradation": 72.7, "fisheries_collapse": 65.9, "seed_monopoly": 70.9, "pest_migration": 81.8, "energy_shock": 68.9 }, { "country": "Kiribati", "iso3": "KIR", "composite_vulnerability": 73.1, "breadbasket_drought": 80.2, "black_sea_blockade": 83.1, "fertilizer_cutoff": 61.4, "pollinator_decline": 80.5, "canal_closure": 87.4, "aquifer_depletion": 65.3, "trade_war": 72.8, "soil_degradation": 70.2, "fisheries_collapse": 76.6, "seed_monopoly": 77.3, "pest_migration": 67.7, "energy_shock": 83.6 }, { "country": "Marshall Islands", "iso3": "MHL", "composite_vulnerability": 72.4, "breadbasket_drought": 65.5, "black_sea_blockade": 71.3, "fertilizer_cutoff": 80.6, "pollinator_decline": 88.0, "canal_closure": 68.3, "aquifer_depletion": 78.7, "trade_war": 74.2, "soil_degradation": 59.7, "fisheries_collapse": 64.8, "seed_monopoly": 62.8, "pest_migration": 68.4, "energy_shock": 69.1 }, { "country": "Zimbabwe", "iso3": "ZWE", "composite_vulnerability": 72.1, "breadbasket_drought": 87.7, "black_sea_blockade": 87.0, "fertilizer_cutoff": 67.5, "pollinator_decline": 68.4, "canal_closure": 77.6, "aquifer_depletion": 80.6, "trade_war": 68.8, "soil_degradation": 71.0, "fisheries_collapse": 89.8, "seed_monopoly": 71.2, "pest_migration": 68.2, "energy_shock": 73.1 }, { "country": "Timor-Leste", "iso3": "TLS", "composite_vulnerability": 71.8, "breadbasket_drought": 58.2, "black_sea_blockade": 71.4, "fertilizer_cutoff": 67.3, "pollinator_decline": 95.4, "canal_closure": 70.1, "aquifer_depletion": 68.2, "trade_war": 79.7, "soil_degradation": 70.6, "fisheries_collapse": 73.8, "seed_monopoly": 64.8, "pest_migration": 84.2, "energy_shock": 66.8 }, { "country": "Nigeria", "iso3": "NGA", "composite_vulnerability": 71.3, "breadbasket_drought": 80.0, "black_sea_blockade": 52.5, "fertilizer_cutoff": 72.7, "pollinator_decline": 72.4, "canal_closure": 66.7, "aquifer_depletion": 82.4, "trade_war": 79.1, "soil_degradation": 69.2, "fisheries_collapse": 70.6, "seed_monopoly": 68.2, "pest_migration": 67.2, "energy_shock": 60.8 }, { "country": "Guinea-Bissau", "iso3": "GNB", "composite_vulnerability": 71.2, "breadbasket_drought": 72.0, "black_sea_blockade": 75.6, "fertilizer_cutoff": 69.9, "pollinator_decline": 89.8, "canal_closure": 63.9, "aquifer_depletion": 67.2, "trade_war": 75.3, "soil_degradation": 77.1, "fisheries_collapse": 60.2, "seed_monopoly": 81.6, "pest_migration": 59.5, "energy_shock": 71.3 }, { "country": "Micronesia", "iso3": "FSM", "composite_vulnerability": 70.8, "breadbasket_drought": 71.0, "black_sea_blockade": 81.0, "fertilizer_cutoff": 74.2, "pollinator_decline": 92.0, "canal_closure": 68.9, "aquifer_depletion": 77.1, "trade_war": 74.1, "soil_degradation": 82.9, "fisheries_collapse": 67.8, "seed_monopoly": 77.6, "pest_migration": 83.8, "energy_shock": 65.0 }, { "country": "Comoros", "iso3": "COM", "composite_vulnerability": 70.3, "breadbasket_drought": 73.9, "black_sea_blockade": 73.4, "fertilizer_cutoff": 64.3, "pollinator_decline": 71.9, "canal_closure": 75.4, "aquifer_depletion": 82.3, "trade_war": 72.9, "soil_degradation": 60.3, "fisheries_collapse": 70.5, "seed_monopoly": 65.3, "pest_migration": 80.9, "energy_shock": 56.9 }, { "country": "Mauritania", "iso3": "MRT", "composite_vulnerability": 69.7, "breadbasket_drought": 58.6, "black_sea_blockade": 66.7, "fertilizer_cutoff": 71.7, "pollinator_decline": 70.5, "canal_closure": 80.7, "aquifer_depletion": 53.9, "trade_war": 63.0, "soil_degradation": 57.9, "fisheries_collapse": 56.6, "seed_monopoly": 77.7, "pest_migration": 71.2, "energy_shock": 82.2 }, { "country": "Venezuela", "iso3": "VEN", "composite_vulnerability": 69.4, "breadbasket_drought": 66.5, "black_sea_blockade": 63.7, "fertilizer_cutoff": 64.6, "pollinator_decline": 61.6, "canal_closure": 63.4, "aquifer_depletion": 71.7, "trade_war": 69.5, "soil_degradation": 65.5, "fisheries_collapse": 63.5, "seed_monopoly": 72.2, "pest_migration": 65.4, "energy_shock": 61.1 }, { "country": "Liberia", "iso3": "LBR", "composite_vulnerability": 69.1, "breadbasket_drought": 87.1, "black_sea_blockade": 72.9, "fertilizer_cutoff": 61.1, "pollinator_decline": 87.9, "canal_closure": 57.7, "aquifer_depletion": 62.2, "trade_war": 67.2, "soil_degradation": 61.3, "fisheries_collapse": 73.3, "seed_monopoly": 71.3, "pest_migration": 70.0, "energy_shock": 84.3 }, { "country": "Maldives", "iso3": "MDV", "composite_vulnerability": 68.7, "breadbasket_drought": 79.2, "black_sea_blockade": 67.4, "fertilizer_cutoff": 72.4, "pollinator_decline": 56.4, "canal_closure": 68.0, "aquifer_depletion": 67.0, "trade_war": 48.1, "soil_degradation": 72.0, "fisheries_collapse": 71.5, "seed_monopoly": 55.2, "pest_migration": 57.4, "energy_shock": 62.7 }, { "country": "Pakistan", "iso3": "PAK", "composite_vulnerability": 68.4, "breadbasket_drought": 68.4, "black_sea_blockade": 71.7, "fertilizer_cutoff": 78.3, "pollinator_decline": 69.6, "canal_closure": 75.8, "aquifer_depletion": 68.4, "trade_war": 60.2, "soil_degradation": 57.1, "fisheries_collapse": 60.6, "seed_monopoly": 57.5, "pest_migration": 73.5, "energy_shock": 66.7 }, { "country": "Lesotho", "iso3": "LSO", "composite_vulnerability": 68.3, "breadbasket_drought": 55.2, "black_sea_blockade": 79.2, "fertilizer_cutoff": 61.7, "pollinator_decline": 80.0, "canal_closure": 83.5, "aquifer_depletion": 86.7, "trade_war": 66.8, "soil_degradation": 59.0, "fisheries_collapse": 70.9, 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